Monthly Market | July 2026
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International
OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and an unreleased model escaped a secured testing sandbox and autonomously hacked Hugging Face's production servers. The AI exploited a previously unknown zero-day vulnerability to reach the internet, then chained stolen credentials and remote code execution to breach Hugging Face. The models weren't being malicious — they were cheating on a cybersecurity test called ExploitGym, trying to steal the answer key. Hugging Face detected the attack on July 16 using its own AI; OpenAI admitted responsibility on July 21. US Congress is now pushing for mandatory AI safety testing and breach disclosure laws in response. This might be the first case of The Singlarity, where machines become autonomous…
The US and Iran conflict has re-ignited after President Trump announced a naval blockade on Iranian shipping …. Wait! Wait!! A new deal has been reached but… they are attacking again… The latest at time of writing is that Donald Trump said that talks with Iran would resume on 3 August but did not give a deadline for a deal. Trump had posted on 1 August that Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had asked for time to complete a deal. The uncertainty plays havoc on all markets and especially the oil price. Trump said key Middle Eastern allies, including Saudi Arabia, urged him to suspend the attacks and prioritize negotiations, while reiterating his call for the swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Last month, Brent prices climbed about 25% after renewed hostilities between the US and Iran shattered the interim peace agreement, with supply disruptions extending from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea. Meanwhile, major OPEC+ producers approved another modest increase in production quotas, completing the planned restoration of output cuts introduced in 2023 and leaving room to boost supplies further once the Middle East conflict comes to an end.
The chart below shows how the turmoil has impacted the price of oil, and by default the impact of inflation.
Brent Crude Oil
Israel has continued military operations in Gaza, maintaining control over large areas while conducting airstrikes and expressing scepticism about a U.S.-brokered proposal for Hamas disarmament, insisting on verifiable destruction of weapons before any major withdrawal. In the West Bank, the government has advanced settlement expansion and land-registration measures that critics say strengthen Israeli control and accelerate de facto annexation, alongside ongoing military raids and heightened settler violence. In Lebanon, Israeli forces have continued strikes and maintained military positions, citing security concerns and Hezbollah threats despite ceasefire and diplomatic efforts. The Israeli factor therefore also needs to be constantly factored in, with them battling wars on three fronts, excluding Iran.
Israel | Gaza | Lebanon | West Bank Map
US inflation is currently averaging 4.1%, largely driven by the recent spike in oil prices following heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Oil prices are coming down, which might lead to inflation moderating. However, if the U.S. economy experiences stronger-than-expected consumer and business investment spending, this could become a headwind to the disinflationary process, resulting in inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This may force the Fed to either maintain current interest rate status quo or hike.
The US unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% from 4.3% the previous month as 720,000 left the labour force with markets now pricing in the potential for a rate hike towards the end of the year.
Kevin Warsh has been appointed as the new Federal Reserve Chair. In his first policy meeting as Federal Reserve Chair, he sent a clear message to financial markets that he is not simply a "Trump puppet." Instead, he emphasized the Federal Reserve's independence and reaffirmed its commitment to returning inflation to the 2% target, despite ongoing political pressure for lower interest rates. His hawkish tone unsettled financial markets, prompting investors to reassess the interest-rate outlook. As a result, market expectations shifted from pricing in one interest-rate hike in 2026 to two hikes. The Fed released its June FOMC minutes on 8 July under new Chair Kevin Warsh, who was the first chair since 2012 to withhold his own rate projection. The minutes revealed a split committee.
United States Fed Funds Interest Rate
Voters tend to favour an environment characterised by rising living standards, stable prices, and strong employment conditions. US voters vote with their pockets. The onus is now on Trump to bring inflation down as soon as possible if the Republicans do not want to be punished at the voting stations in November.
The lesser-known story within U.S. equities has been the significant outperformance of small- and mid-cap stocks over the past six months (left chart). Unlike large-cap (multi – nationals) companies, these small/mid businesses are more closely tied to domestic economic activity and have benefited from strong consumer spending, healthy corporate investment, and continued resilience in U.S. economic growth.
Small caps post best first half in decades
South Korea has unveiled an $880bn chip and AI investment plan to build out the country's chip manufacturing and artificial intelligence capabilities in the coming years. It is part of the country's so-called Three Mega Projects to develop new chip production hubs, data centres and robotics technology to rival Taiwan, China and Japan who are also investing heavily.
The International Monetary Fund inched its 2026 global growth forecast lower again to a sluggish 3.0%, warning of ongoing risks linked to the war in the Middle East, trade fragmentation and potential corrections in market expectations for AI.
Funeral directors in France are struggling to manage an influx of bodies following a brutal heatwave that caused more than 2,000 excess deaths. Overcrowded facilities have forced undertakers to rent industrial refrigerated containers to handle the surge. The impact of the heat wave, raging fires and the impact of a fully developed El Nino is a serious natural threat to world stability.
The Ebola outbreak is spreading rapidly, with the DRC being the epicentre. The WHO has declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) due to its international spread. The Bundibugyo strain of the Ebola virus is currently causing the outbreak, and no approved vaccine or treatment is available. The outbreak is challenging due to limited health infrastructure, ongoing conflict, and misinformation. Current cases:
DRC: 3,200 confirmed cases, 1,405 confirmed deaths (as of July 16, 2026), Uganda: 20 confirmed cases, 2 deaths, Total: 3,220 confirmed cases, 1,407 deaths (CFR 44%)
South Africa
The latest position is that President Cyril Ramaphosa has temporarily succeeded in stopping Parliament's Section 89 impeachment inquiry over the Phala Phala matter. The Western Cape High Court granted an interim interdict preventing Parliament's impeachment committee from continuing its public hearings until the court has heard and decided Ramaphosa's application to review and set aside the 2022 independent panel report that found prima facie evidence of possible serious misconduct.
The impeachment process has therefore been paused, not cancelled. Ramaphosa's main review application is scheduled to be heard over three days in September 2026, and legal analysts say the overall process could take months, or even years, before Parliament can resume any impeachment proceedings if the review is unsuccessful.
The legal battle has now also reached the Constitutional Court. Opposition parties, including the ATM, EFF, MK Party and UAT, are seeking to overturn the interim interdict, and the Constitutional Court has directed opposing parties to file their papers before deciding whether Parliament's impeachment inquiry should be allowed to continue while Ramaphosa's review is pending.
South Africa has experienced a renewed wave of xenophobic tensions in recent months, with anti-immigrant protests, vigilante attacks and intimidation targeting mainly African migrants in parts of Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. Critics say economic hardship, high unemployment and concerns over undocumented migration have fuelled the unrest, while rights groups argue that migrants are being unfairly scapegoated. The government has publicly condemned the violence, pledged stronger policing and prosecutions, and engaged diplomatically with affected countries such as Nigeria, although concerns remain about the effectiveness of efforts to prevent further attacks and protect foreign nationals. Currently masses are still trying to leave the country.
Roelf Meyer arrived in Washington, DC, on Friday, 24 July, eager to deploy his considerable negotiation skills to tackle the challenging task of repairing South Africa’s damaged relations with the US.
The International Monetary Fund expects South Africa’s 2026 economic growth to equal that of 2025 at 1.1% – lifting its quarterly outlook from the previous forecast of 1%. This remains slightly below the 1.2% the SA Reserve Bank predicted at the end of May. The IMF cut its world growth forecast to 3%.
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has agreed to acquire Shell’s downstream business in South Africa for R16.25 billion. Adnoc, which is wholly owned by the United Arab Emirates government, and Shell confirmed the transaction.
The World Bank has recommended South Africa consider extending a preferential 15% corporate income tax rate to all its Special Economic Zones, adding that the country has the infrastructure and institutional capacity to run a world-class zones programme.
The Department of Agriculture has reached a settlement with private organisations who litigated against its control of the foot-and-mouth disease vaccine, allowing farmers to administer vaccines to their livestock. Agriculture Minister Willie Aucamp said the main tenet of the agreement was that owners and managers of cloven-hoofed livestock may perform voluntary vaccination of their animals against FMD, in line with certain biosecurity requirements, legal prescripts and other conditions – including traceability and reporting.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has deployed 3 405 South African National Defence Force soldiers to assist with the police’s law and order efforts during planned marches against undocumented immigrants. The deployment is expected to last until 31 July.
Public Works and Infrastructure Minister, Dean Macpherson, has welcomed the cabinet’s approval of a national policy instrument aimed at preventing construction project disruptions by the so-called construction mafia. Macpherson said progress has been achieved since the signing of the Durban Declaration in 2024, with more than 770 reported cases, 241 arrests, and 176 convictions, construction disruptions in KwaZulu-Natal have been reduced from more than 60 per month to less than 10.
The Public Protector has found that the City of Cape Town failed to provide basic municipal services to residents of Langa Flats and Khayelitsha, amounting to maladministration and breaches of its constitutional and statutory obligations. The city said that it had cooperated fully with the investigation and that various corrective measures were already under way.
The DA has called for an immediate lifestyle audit of newly appointed Social Development Minister Dina Pule because of findings made against her in her previous stint in the cabinet. The DA said a lifestyle audit should establish a baseline of Pule’s assets, finances and lifestyle before she assumes full responsibility for the department.
Transport Minister Barbara Creecy said the government remains committed to restoring rail as the backbone of the country’s freight logistics system. Addressing the Southern African Transport Conference in Johannesburg, she announced that 11 private train operating companies have now been approved to access the national rail network. Operations are expected to begin in April next year, with the government targeting the movement of 250 million tonnes of freight on the Transnet rail network by 2030. Creecy also highlighted improvements in passenger rail, with 35 of the country’s 40 priority rail lines now restored, and passenger journeys on the Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa network increasing from only 10 million in 2020/21 to 101 million in 2025/26.
State-owned Transnet has launched a process to appoint a private-sector partner to operate Cape Town’s multipurpose terminal under a concession agreement, advancing South Africa’s logistics reform programme. The terminal handles dry bulk, breakbulk and project cargo that supports several key industries. Government hopes private-sector participation will improve operational efficiency, reduce vessel delays, lower supply chain costs and enhance the reliability of trade flows. The concession also forms part of broader efforts to attract investment into the country’s freight rail and port infrastructure. Cape Town’s port faces significant performance challenges, with the latest Container Port Performance Index ranking the city’s container port last among 400 ports worldwide.
Home Affairs Minister Leon Schreiber announced his department has launched Phase 2 of the Trusted Employer Scheme, expanding a fast-track visa system for accredited employers to reduce red tape and speed up the recruitment of skilled foreign executives, technical specialists, corporate staff and investors.
The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the lending arm of the World Bank Group, has approved a new R25 billion ($1.5 billion) loan to support South Africa’s infrastructure modernisation drive in a boost that will enable nearly 600 000 jobs. The World Bank said the loan would help tackle long-standing bottlenecks in electricity, freight transport and water and sanitation services.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana released July’s municipal equitable share payments despite non-compliance, citing service delivery concerns. However, he warned that December payments would be withheld if municipal financial management did not improve, maintaining pressure on local governments to meet Treasury demands.
On 20 July 2026, state-owned power utility Eskom recorded a daily Energy Availability Factor (EAF) of 80.24%, the highest since 20 September 2017. The national power utility said the milestone was the result of its Generation Recovery Plan, which it launched in partnership with the Minister of Electricity, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, in March 2023.
The Madlanga Commission of Inquiry, chaired by retired Constitutional Court Justice Mbuyiseli Madlanga, submitted its second interim report to President Cyril Ramaphosa on 29 May 2026. The report has not yet been made public, with the Presidency arguing that publication could compromise ongoing investigations and prejudice witnesses. The Commission is expected to submit its final report by the end of August 2026, after which the President will decide on its release and implementation.
Key aspects of the inquiry:
Alleged political interference in SAPS investigations and the alleged dismantling of specialised police units.
Claims that organised crime syndicates infiltrated senior levels of the police, intelligence services and other law enforcement agencies.
Allegations of corruption involving senior SAPS officers, metro police officials and politically connected individuals.
Evidence relating to drug trafficking networks, the theft of seized narcotics, and alleged collusion between police officials and criminal cartels.
The controversial R360 million SAPS health services tender awarded to businessman Vusimuzi "Cat" Matlala and allegations that politically connected figures sought to protect the contract.
Testimony about intimidation and killings of whistle-blowers, police informants and witnesses linked to organised crime investigations.
The Commission has emphasised that many allegations remain under investigation and that final findings on individual responsibility will only be made in its concluding report.
With the drive against corruption, improvement in state utilities and responsible fiscal policy, rating agencies may see beyond the negative and consider improving South Africa’s ratings in coming months. Moody’s Ratings, like Fitch and S&P, currently pegs South Africa at Ba2, which it maintained in May while upgrading its outlook to positive from stable. More good news than bad…
Snippets from the market
Ferran Torres scored an extra-time winner to give Spain a 1-0 World Cup final victory over Argentina in New York. Argentina set out to spoil and engage in “anti-football”, but eventually, after 20 shots, 12 of them on target, Spain found a way to ensure that the beautiful game remained beautiful.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has extended the final report deadline of the Madlanga Commission, which will now submit its report on 16 November instead of 31 August.
The National Treasury has temporarily withheld R13.5 billion in equitable share allocations intended for 69 municipalities nationwide over financial mismanagement and governance failures.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has weighed in on the Democratic Alliance's internal dispute over allegations by former party leader John Steenhuisen that former DA leader Tony Leon's public affairs firm, Resolve Communications, enjoyed privileged access to DA ministers.
The government aims a crackdown on illegal online betting platforms that are said to account for 62% of a market that has attracted about 16 million South Africans and more than R50 billion in gross gambling revenue annually.
From 1 July 2026, all travellers moving through South Africa’s air, land, sea and rail ports of entry are required to submit an online traveller declaration before they travel.
Scientists at the University of Cape Town’s Department of Geological Sciences on Tuesday called for heightened monitoring of the Karoo Basin after uncovering evidence of a previously unknown fault that could trigger earthquakes in a region earmarked for shale gas exploration. Their study examined an "earthquake swarm" near Leeu-Gamka that began in 2007 in an area previously considered relatively quiet seismically. However, since then it has recorded at least 66 earthquakes, including one with a magnitude of 4.8 on the Richter scale.
South African pharmaceutical company, Xylomed Pharmaceuticals, has developed a candidate treatment for the Ebola virus, and is planning a double-blind, randomised clinical trial of its experimental Ebola drug in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda and South Sudan.
Nigeria has accused South African authorities of complicity in the deaths of four Nigerian nationals, warning it may take further action if violence against immigrants continues.
Ghana has postponed bilateral meetings with South Africa scheduled for next month, citing anti-migrant demonstrations.
International Relations and Cooperation Minister, Ronald Lamola, has ordered an internal investigation by his department into why South Africa’s High Commissioner to India, Anil Sookla, l appeared at an event with former president Jacob Zuma and State Capture-implicated businessman and fugitive of the law, Ajay Gupta, in Haridwar, India,
The Madlanga Commission has been one of the most effective inquiries South Africa has ever experienced, with more than 30 arrests made since its first public hearings in mid-September 2025.
The race to be Joburg mayor is heating up with all of us spoilt for choice. There are some ace candidates in the running (Helen Zille and Herman Mashaba) and the EFF announced its candidate as Dr Tlaleng Mofokeng.
Social Development Minister Dina Pule said the country’s social grants agency has flagged more than 420 000 beneficiaries for eligibility reviews in the 2025/26 financial year, a project that is expected to save the government about R1.5 billion.
South Africa’s public schools are facing a looming teacher replacement challenge, with almost half of state-employed educators aged 50 or older and a wave of retirements expected over the next decade. In a parliamentary reply, Basic Education Minister, Siviwe Gwarube, said there were 17 450 vacancies among 389 286 funded teaching posts at the end of January 2026, a national vacancy rate of 4%.
Water and Sanitation Deputy Minister, Jack Bloom, has urged municipalities to phase out the long-term use of chemical toilets in informal settlements, saying they are expensive to maintain and prone to corruption.
The Gauteng High Court has granted the Asset Forfeiture Unit a final order allowing the state to seize luxury assets worth hundreds of millions of rand linked to alleged Tembisa Hospital tender kingpin, Hangwani Morgan Maumela.
Sports, Arts and Culture Minister, Gayton McKenzie, has detailed how his department spent its R31 million budget to send a delegation to the 2026 Fifa World Cup. The response follows sharp criticism from the DA and ActionSA, who raised concerns over the allocation of funds and demanded a full breakdown of individual costs.
The Trump Administration has imposed new tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on goods from 60 trading partners, including the European Union, China and South Africa, citing weak enforcement of forced labour bans. For South Africa, the move effectively raises the current global tariff from 10% to 12.5%, although several products are exempt.
Annual consumer inflation jumped to 5% in June from 4.5% in May, the highest inflation since the 5.1% recorded for June 2024, according to the latest consumer price inflation figures from Stats SA.
Cape Town will invest R6 billion in electricity infrastructure over the next three years to improve energy security and reduce reliance on Eskom.
Blowing vuvuzelas to scare off lions has dramatically reduced human-wildlife conflict in communities bordering Zimbabwe's Hwange National Park. Groups armed with vuvuzelas would head to the animals' location and create a deafening wall of noise, driving them back into the park. The approach halved livestock losses and showed that simple, community-led solutions can play a vital role in wildlife conservation.
Novo Nordisk launched a more affordable authorised version of its blockbuster diabetes drug Ozempic in South Africa on 27 July, in partnership with healthcare company Acino. SAHPRA is reviewing 12 applications for generic semaglutide products, opening the door to increased competition and wider access for South African patients.
One of Africa’s most ambitious energy projects has cleared its final political hurdle, with West African leaders formally approving the long-awaited Nigeria-Morocco Atlantic Gas Pipeline. The 6 000 km pipeline will run along the Atlantic coast through 14 African countries, transporting Nigerian gas to Morocco before connecting to Europe’s gas network via Spain. Construction is expected to begin in 2028.
OpenAI's CEO says we've reached a point in the AI race that is the stuff of science fiction novels. "We are now, like, in the singularity,". Sam Altman said the singularity is often regarded as the point at which artificial intelligence surpasses human intelligence and begins advancing at a pace that's difficult for people to predict or control.
Anthropic’s Claude also AI hacked into the systems of three companies during testing after a configuration error allowed it internet access. Déjà vu?
Eleven years after a journalist first exposed dodgy property dealings involving Lucky Montana, the Special Investigating Unit is finally moving to claw back assets that the former Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa boss allegedly acquired through corruption.
After the recent massive earthquakes in Venezuela, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck Japan’s southern island of Kyushu, killing at least 34 people and triggering a tsunami advisory for local coastal areas and temporary bullet train suspensions. Authorities confirmed no immediate abnormalities at nearby nuclear facilities as damage assessments continue.
South African National Defence Force chief Lt-Gen Lawrence Mbatha held talks with the deputy commander-in-chief of Russia’s land forces, Col-Gen Alexander Matovnikov, who thanked South Africa’s political and military leadership for what he called its “firm position” on Russia and shared vision of a multipolar world. The two generals agreed to strengthen military cooperation with Russia following talks in Moscow
Taiwan tested moving vital weapons production underground during military drills simulating a full-scale attack from China. The exercise aimed to protect supply chains during an invasion.
The first Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), the UAE's largest bank ($406bn in assets), has cleared its final legal hurdle and is targeting wholesale, institutional and infrastructure finance, backed by growing Gulf–Africa capital flows.
Talks between Hamas leaders and mediators in Cairo potentially led to a phased disarmament agreement in Gaza that could clear the path for Gaza being governed by a new Palestinian government. While Trump’s post described it as a “HISTORIC agreement” a Hamas official called the deal a draft. A US official said Israel was sceptical that Hamas would surrender its weapons, so things may still drag on.
Cabinet has approved extending the validity period of ordinary South African driver's licence cards from five years to 10 years, a move aimed at reducing renewal costs, easing pressure on licensing centres and cutting administrative backlogs.
ActionSA has unveiled a private member’s bill to establish South Africa’s first statutory framework regulating professional lobbying, saying it will improve transparency around political influence. This comes after Tony Leon’s lobbying was suspected of being too close to the fire.
The sugar industry has raised the alarm over a surge in imports threatening the survival of local producers, calling on Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau to urgently finalise the update to the tariff mechanism so it reflects market realities.
Southern Sun has begun a R250 million phased refurbishment of its flagship 734-room Southern Sun Elangeni & Maharani Hotel, marking another milestone in Durban’s beachfront revival.
South Africa continues to lose more than a third of its treated water before it reaches consumers, highlighting the scale of the country’s water infrastructure crisis. The latest ESI Africa Water Security & Infrastructure 2026 report released on Tuesday estimates that over 35% of municipal water is lost through leaking pipes, ageing infrastructure, theft and inaccurate metering.
Marine scientists have highlighted one of the largest recorded gatherings of humpback whales ever documented off South Africa's west coast after researchers analysed a remarkable sighting made in December 2025, describing it as evidence of the species' recovery since commercial whaling was banned.
Three South African pharmaceutical manufacturers have been shortlisted as potential candidates to make Gilead’s HIV prevention injection lenacapavir.
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