Monthly Market | September 2026
International
President Donald Trump has promised to campaign aggressively for Republican candidates before November’s midterm elections, while touting his own success on the campaign trail. Only 33% of Americans approved of Trump’s performance in a recent poll, so let’s see how much he can help.
Following Warsh’s remarks at Jackson Hole, three points stood out:
More hawkish on inflation.
No forward guidance as expected. He again declined to spell out his interest rate outlook, arguing markets shouldn't look to the Fed for trading cues and instead wants markets sending signals to the Fed.
He confirmed short-term rates remain the Fed's primary lever and signalled he wants the Fed to be less active in broader financial markets
The US dollar surged to a seven-week high after the Fed unanimously raised interest rates and signalled further tightening under chair Kevin Warsh. It's no coincidence that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has recently pursued buying back long-term government debt. The central bank indicated that the US economy continues to expand at a solid pace, thanks to resilient domestic spending and despite elevated uncertainty linked to geopolitical developments. Economic activity has been supported by strong productivity growth and robust capital investment, while employment gains have broadly kept pace with labour force growth. As a result, the unemployment rate has remained relatively stable.
Interest Rates
US inflation remains elevated relative to the 2% goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The central bank reiterated its commitment to deliver price stability. The decision is a near-term headwind for growth and risk assets, but not necessarily a cycle-ending shock. The key market question is whether this is a limited inflation response or the start of a sustained higher-for-longer tightening cycle.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met the Japanese Finance Minister and urged BOJ to take "decisive" steps against yen weakness pressing them to hike rates. Interest rates on Japan government bonds rose to record highs, with the 10-year floating-rate bond reaching 1.95%, reflecting the broader global bond sell-off and rising rate expectations.
Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield
Global oil prices and US Treasury yields pulled back as Middle East crude supply concerns eased following the restart of Saudi Arabia’s vital East-West Pipeline. This temporary relief for financial markets is a welcome break. France will deploy its military to protect the Red Sea oil routes, as Saudi Arabia continues to be drawn into the regional conflict unfolding. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have threatened Saudi ports, particularly the critical site, Yanbu.
President Donald Trump welcomed China’s President Xi Jinping to the White House, laying the ceremony on thick, but providing few substantial outcomes. Xi said that the two had achieved “common understanding on many issues” but provided no detail.
Trump threatened to “annihilate” Iran. Speaking at the UN General Assembly, Trump said he had a “big decision to make” if there is no deal to end the war. Iran dismissed his words as “propaganda”, threatening more reprisals. President Trump has openly threatened to ban all US diesel exports. During the same meeting, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the administration was evaluating the feasibility of a ban. Winter in the EU could become just that bit more expensive, with no impact on Iran. Logic?
Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have begun targeting Saudi cities, in an escalation of the current US-Iran war. Houthi strikes on four cities killed an estimated 73 people and set oil installations on fire. US forces also hit multiple Iranian oil tankers. Iran, in turn, has claimed to have captured an unmanned US submarine. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claim it was an Anduril Dive-LD, seized near the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. Expect a high bounty offer for access to that tech...
The re-escalation of the oil crisis has seen oil prices spike to a constant level above $100 per barrel as Saudi pipelines have also been disrupted. Global oil prices rose as US President Donald Trump firmly denied reports that he would offer Iran sanctions relief, countering the recent recovery in Middle East crude supplies. With Brent crude climbing and on track for its biggest monthly gain since July, Qatar is trying to broker backdoor peace talks between Washington and Tehran to mitigate the conflict’s severe economic repercussions. Qatari mediators are trying hard to broker a peace deal between the US and Iran. The Qataris hope to shuttle messages back and forth to find common ground and an off-ramp for the war.
Brent Oil
BYD, which is China and the world’s largest electric-vehicle maker, saw profits rise for the first time in five quarters as the company generated more than half of its revenue from international markets to offset a sharp slowdown in China.
Solar panels are now China’s top source of power capacity, surpassing coal in a key milestone for the country’s green energy boom. Solar capacity reached 1 286 gigawatts at the end of July, accounting for 31.5% of China’s total installed power generation capacity.
Israel has ordered the UK to close its East Jerusalem consulate within 30 days following London’s move to ban goods from West Bank settlements. British diplomats are disputing the directive, warning it threatens crucial regional ties. Pressures are also mounting on Netanyahu’s government during the build up towards their elections in October. Delegates left the UN meeting en masse during Netanyahu’s speech in which he tries to justify Israel’s expansion policy.
A global refining crunch is expected to keep diesel supplies tight and prices high in coming months, analysts and traders say. More than six months of war in the Persian Gulf has disrupted regional output, while Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have prompted Moscow to extend its diesel export ban.
South Africa
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25 percent. The prime rate will also go up by 25 basis points to 10.75%. The Monetary Policy Committee said the decision comes against a challenging and uncertain global backdrop, with geopolitical tensions adding to pressures. The central bank said the conflict in the Middle East has escalated since its previous meeting, while the Russia-Ukraine war continues to disrupt refinery capacity. The SARB said these conflicts are creating a large and persistent global supply shock, pushing up inflation risks.
South Africa’s annual inflation rate edged up to 4.4% in August from 4.3% in July, slightly below expectations.
The contraction in the second quarter of 2026 indicates that the cyclical upswing lost momentum, with weak domestic demand and investment limiting growth. A challenging global backdrop, ongoing conflict in the Middle East, higher fuel-related costs and local political risks remain downside risks to the growth outlook. Economists maintain their real growth forecasts of 1.2% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. Growth in 2027 is expected to be supported by a recovery in fixed investment and a gradual improvement in household consumption. Looking forward, business confidence deteriorated slightly in the third quarter to 38 points, while consumer confidence is expected to remain weak. As such, growth is likely to remain subdued in the third quarter.
Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) chair Mosotho Moepya said 142 072 candidates were nominated to contest the municipal elections of 4 November. A total of 299 political parties and 127 independent candidates used the online candidate nomination system to submit their lists, while another 205 political parties and 634 independent candidates submitted theirs manually. The IEC chair said 40 241 proportional representation candidates, 100 856 ward candidates, and 975 independent candidates would contest the elections, an increase of 43% in the participation rate in 2021. This seems like massive job creation…
The Electoral Court has dismissed the African National Congress’s appeal against the decision of the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) to exclude 181 of its candidates from contesting the 4 November local government elections. The ANC says it will explore further legal avenues and maintains that technical problems prevented it from completing the final electronic submission. This might cause the ANC to lose dominance in municipalities like Mangaung, where a coalition government seems likely after decades of ANC rule.
Justice Minister Mmamoloko Kubayi has appointed former parliament legal adviser Ntuthuzelo Vanara as acting head of the Investigating Directorate Against Corruption (IDAC). Vanara replaces Andrea Johnson, who resigned in July while testifying before the Madlanga Commission.
South Africa recorded 343 fewer murders in the first quarter of the 2026/27 financial year, with the murder rate falling 5.9%, according to the latest police statistics released. However, these stats were before the East Rand murders on women and before a couple of tragic mass shootings around the country.
Basic Education Minister Siviwe Gwarube says R120 billion is needed to provide additional classrooms and sanitation facilities in South Africa’s public schools as growing pupil numbers put pressure on the education system. She said the scale of the infrastructure challenge meant government needed to work with the private sector to ensure children had proper places to learn. Improving school infrastructure should also be matched by efforts to improve learning outcomes, particularly in literacy, numeracy, mathematics and science.
US President Donald Trump has signed legislation extending the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) through 2028 but falling well short of South Africa’s call for a 15-year extension. The extension received bipartisan support in the House, passing by 370 votes to 48. However, US tariffs on several South African products have already reduced the benefits of duty-free access. This deal might become null and void if political tension between SA and the US escalates.
The US has imposed visa restrictions on foreign nationals it holds responsible for, or complicit in, South African laws and policies it says enable race-based discrimination, uncompensated land seizures and violence against minority groups. Bozell said the visa measures were only the first in a series of escalating steps. The five US demands include scrapping or exempting US firms from B-BBEE, abandoning expropriation without compensation, making farm killings a policing priority, condemning the “Kill the Boer” song and distancing South Africa from US adversaries, particularly Iran.
US ambassador to South Africa Leo Brent Bozell has suggested former president Thabo Mbeki could help break the diplomatic impasse between Pretoria and Washington, saying Mbeki understands global diplomacy and economic engagement. Bozell has criticised President Cyril Ramaphosa’s handling of relations, saying Washington had “run out of patience”. South Africa’s ambassador to the US, Roelf Meyer, meanwhile said only dialogue can improve strained relations and counter what he described as misrepresentation of South Africa’s laws and transformation policies.
The next phase of Operation Vulindlela, National Treasury’s joint initiative with President Cyril Ramaphosa for structural economic reforms – will target a partnership with the private sector for water delivery. A public-private partnership framework on water delivery will be unveiled before Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana presents the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on 21 October.
Some thought the KwaZulu-Natal Provincial Police Commissioner’s cartel-infiltration accusations in 2025 were part of an elaborate, underhanded plot. Mounting evidence now suggests that he was instead outing real corruption. Several individuals implicated in this broader scandal now face criminal complaints and mounting accusations. Some have been arrested, placed on leave and/or suspended. They include politicians, law enforcers and business figures, suggesting there is truth to aspects of this overall accusation. What is still to emerge from the Madlanga Commission, criminal investigations and related court cases will inevitably fill in some blanks. The Madlanga Commission seems to be a turning point in South Africa’s fight against corruption.
South Africa’s agricultural exports have remained strong since the start of the year, supported by ample domestic harvest and generally strong global demand for food products. After solid export activity in the first quarter of the year, South Africa’s agricultural exports totalled R65 billion in the second quarter of 2026, up 10% from the same period a year ago. This is again a function of both higher export volumes of various products and better commodity prices. However, El Nino looms darkly on the horizon.
South Africa is seeking direct air links with China and India after disruptions at Middle Eastern transit hubs caused a sharp decline in tourist arrivals from Asian markets. SA Tourism chief strategy officer Siyabonga Mthethwa said flights through Dubai and Doha had been disrupted, particularly affecting Chinese visitors. Of about 19 000 seats normally available on flights between China and South Africa, roughly 7 000 have been lost this year – a decline of almost 40%.
Retail trade sales rose 3.4% year-on-year in real terms in July 2026, up from a downwardly revised 1.1% in June and well above the 0.9% market consensus. This is the strongest annual growth since January 2026.
Transnet Rail Infrastructure Manager (Trim) has asked National Treasury for an additional R26 billion to rehabilitate South Africa’s rail network, which has deteriorated through years of underinvestment, theft and vandalism. Trim says Transnet lacks the financial capacity to fund the required work and has already secured about R10 billion through the Budget Facility for Infrastructure. Applications have been submitted for the Cape and Central corridors, with further bids planned for the northeast and container corridors. The investment is intended to restore capacity, improve reliability and support economic growth as private operators enter the rail freight market. Trim has agreements with 11 private train operators expected to add 24 million tonnes of capacity across five strategic corridors.
South Africa will need more than R129 billion to revive two mothballed state-owned refineries to strengthen energy security and reduce reliance on imported fuels. The Central Energy Fund (CEF) says reviving the 180 000-barrel-a-day Sapref refinery in Durban will cost about R115.6 billion. CEF bought the flood-damaged plant from BP and Shell for R1 in 2024. It plans to restart its LPG business and lease storage facilities while upgrading the refinery, with a final investment decision targeted for 2027/28. Financing discussions include pan-African lender Afreximbank. CEF also plans to restart PetroSA’s Mossel Bay refinery in phases.
Snippets from the market
Manufacturing activity remained depressed in August, with Absa’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declining further to 45.8 points from 46.8, its fourth consecutive month-on-month retreat.
The share of retail sales that are completed online has risen to 10% of all retail sales, and online retail is expected to grow by 22.5% to R159 billion this year, compared with 2025, when the share of online retail sales was R130 billion.
South Africa has imposed a 28% provisional duty on colour-coated steel imports from China.
Business Leadership South Africa CEO Busi Mavuso has warned that a proposed strategic partnership with Brazil could benefit the South American country more than South Africa. Brazil is South Africa’s biggest trading partner in Latin America, but the trade balance is heavily skewed. Mavuso warned that a free-trade deal could worsen the deficit unless South Africa first secures better access for its exports. Current trade falls under the SACU-Mercosur preferential trade agreement.
Eskom has more than doubled its annual profit despite selling less electricity, as higher tariffs and lower energy costs helped the utility deliver a second consecutive year of profitability. The power utility reported profit after tax of R30.3 billion for the year to end-March.
Eskom’s pollution levels were nearly triple its own target in 2025/26, a third higher than the year before. The utility’s relative particulate emissions rose significantly, andwas well above the target of 0.35kg/MWh.
Hot temperatures and below-normal rainfall are forecast across much of South Africa from October to December, according to the South African Weather Service (Saws). A strong El Niño event has developed in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to strengthen to a very strong event this spring.
Five civil society organisations have called on the South African Human Rights Commission (SAHRC) to investigate the human, environmental and economic consequences of the country’s rapidly expanding data centre sector, warning that the industry’s growth is outpacing regulation and public oversight.
The Bontebok National Park has reopened three months after severe flooding along the Breede River caused extensive infrastructure damage.
With optimism about Lenacapavir running high since clinical trials found it provided users with almost complete protection against HIV infection, the Health Department has had to ration the limited stock it has on hand due to global supplies being severely constrained.
Researchers have identified 36 genes that significantly increase the risk of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and chronic tic disorders. The genes operate in networks, potentially providing more than 30 targets for developing new drugs. The findings could help researchers develop treatments targeting the biological mechanisms underlying OCD and tic disorders, rather than simply managing their symptoms.
Zambia's President Hakainde Hichilema has been sworn in for a second five-year term following a disputed election and the arrest of his main opponent on treason charges. Runner-up Brian Mundubile, who received 38%, alleged that the outcome had been tampered with. He was unable to mount a legal challenge to the result as the courts were sealed off on the final day a case could be filed. The story of Africa politics…
The UK is set to ban trade in goods originating from Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank in support of a two-state solution. The diplomatic shift follows expanding settlement construction, drawing quick condemnation from Israeli officials.
Thieves stole three paintings from the Renoir Museum in Cagnes-sur-Mer on the French Riviera early on Tuesday 8 September. Police pursued the suspects after an alarm was triggered, but the gang escaped after abandoning a fourth artwork during the chase.
The Dutch Central Bank has shifted gold reserves worth about $12 billion from New York and Ottawa to London, citing concerns about increasing global geopolitical unrest.
Global data centre spending is set to reach $31.6 trillion through to 2050 to meet the world’s growing appetite for AI, an investment boom with no precedent in history, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. Thereby dwarfing projects such as the railways, internet and electrification. Spending on data centres could hit $50 trillion over the next two and a half decades if AI adoption accelerates.
An Amazon Prime air cargo plane has overrun the runway in Miami, killing five people on board. The Boeing 767-300 crashed into nearby cars, trapping several people inside their vehicles.
Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un has unveiled a new destroyer, the 5,000-ton-class Kang Kon, saying that it would form part of his country’s nuclear response system.
August was the joint-hottest month since records began, with average global temperatures reaching 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Last month also saw numerous climate-related disasters such as the deadly flooding in Nepal, raging wildfires in multiple countries, and severe drought in Hungary and Romania. We need radical change, not just paper straws.
US officials have accused Chinese tech firms of “maliciously copying” American artificial intelligence models to bypass trade restrictions. Washington warned that Beijing’s actions threaten intellectual property rights and worsen global technology disputes.
Speaking at the 18th BRICS Summit, President Cyril Ramaphosa called for the establishment of an international mechanism for the independent scientific evaluation of AI. His comments come as several top AI executives have publicly called for a global slow-down in the pace of AI development.
A Russian drone hit a Ukrainian passenger train near the border with Poland on Sunday 13 September. The attack occurred just minutes after former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and other European diplomats had travelled on the same line.
Former defence minister and National Assembly Speaker Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula appeared in court facing 12 corruption counts and a money-laundering charge. The case is on-going.
Correctional Services Minister Pieter Groenewald has suspended four senior departmental officials, including CFO Lebogang Marumule, pending the outcome of an investigation into allegations of fraud related to a coal supply tender reportedly worth more than R1.6 billion.
The suspension of a textbook tender by Basic Education Minister Siviwe Gwarube has started a war of words between the South African Democratic Teachers’ Union (SADTU) and the Democratic Alliance (DA).
Senior military officers were allegedly pressured to donate money to “deserving and needy” Cubans in recognition of the country’s role in the ANC’s liberation struggle. Brigadier-General Mitch Ledwaba of the military’s personnel division apparently requested contributions. Senior officers were asked to contribute more than R15 000 each, and junior officers more than R3 000 each. The soldiers were expected to pay the amounts from advances they received. No explanation was given for what the money would be used for.
ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula has confirmed that the party’s Johannesburg mayoral frontrunner, Reverend Frank Chikane, was left off its candidates list because of an “error”. Mbalula said the omission would be corrected. However, it is rumoured to be a manifestation of the split in the ANC.
State-owned freight and rail group Transnet reported a R4.6 billion profit for the year ended March, from a loss of R1.9 billion in the previous year — its first profit in four years as reforms take shape.
Business confidence lags even as reforms accelerate, says Business Leadership SA CEO Busi Mavuso. She urges faster implementation of electricity market changes to boost confidence, saying that businesses were yet to feel the impact of reforms on the ground.
International luxury goods group Richemont has appointed Anton Rupert (39), son of chairman Johann Rupert, as non-executive co-deputy chair as part of its long-term succession planning.
Pollution from Sasol’s Secunda plant is linked to about 1 000 premature deaths and 260 new childhood asthma cases annually, allegedly imposing a R19 billion burden on society, according to a report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
South African medical aid schemes are facing growing pressure as members of all ages downgrade to cheaper plans or switch to more affordable schemes, contributing to higher contribution increases.
Older people with chronic lung disease may benefit from high-dose influenza vaccines, with a new analysis showing reduced hospitalisation for flu or pneumonia compared with standard vaccines. Two large trials in Denmark and Spain involved nearly 470 000 people aged over 65. The high-dose vaccine contains four times more active ingredient than the standard shot. It reduced hospital admissions for flu or pneumonia by 8.8%.
The African Development Bank (AfDB) has approved a new loan framework of up to $5.1 billion (nearly R82 billion) to mitigate the impact of the global energy and fertiliser crisis resulting from the war in the Middle East on countries across the continent.
Uganda is set to become the world’s newest oil exporter, with commercial shipments of its Pearl Sweet grade to start in December and increase to 230 000 barrels a day within three years. The Ugandan oil will be carried via the 1 500-kilometer East Africa Oil Pipeline to the port of Tanga in Tanzania. Uganda is also planning a 60 000-barrel-a-day refinery, with a final investment decision due around February.
Both Bernie Sanders and Steve Bannon, opposing avatars of the political spectrum, have urged for restrictions on AI. Concerns over AI growth ramped up after an Anthropic researcher resigned, warning that “people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade”.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that she’s looking to open the door for Canada to become the first “associate member” of the organisation, in a push to strengthen Europe’s allies in an “openly hostile world”.
Fiji has declared HIV a national crisis after new diagnoses climbed 27% last year. To help fight the epidemic, Fiji plans to widen access to free, voluntary and confidential testing, and to prevention medicines.
World Weather Attribution researchers said that climate change is highly likely to have contributed to the deadly glacier collapse and flash floods in Nepal that killed around 1,400 people in August. Thousands are still missing.
A UN fact-finding mission said it has reasonable grounds to believe that the US committed war crimes in Iran when it bombed a school and sports facility in February. The report also stated that Iranian authorities committed crimes against humanity during the country’s deadly crackdown on anti-government protests. And, surprise, surprise, the White House responded by claiming Iran is the only guilty party.
Upgrades to China’s military base in Djibouti will significantly boost its capability to monitor troop movements across the Middle East and Africa, according to a report by the US-based CSIS think tank. Satellite imagery reveals new antennas and communications hardware at the site.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has called for BRICS to establish an international mechanism for the independent scientific evaluation of artificial intelligence (AI).
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana says National Treasury has a three-year plan to help fix the City of Johannesburg, which is battling an ongoing financial crisis and rapidly deteriorating infrastructure.
Average inflation expectations two years ahead fell to 3.8% in the third quarter from 3.9%, according to Stellenbosch University’s Bureau for Economic Research.
Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) has invited private operators to develop and run a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal at the port of East London. TNPA issued a request for proposals on Wednesday for an operator to design, finance, build, operate and maintain a small-to-medium-scale LNG terminal under a 25-year concession.
Despite rising climate risks, South Africa’s agricultural sector is better positioned for the next drought cycle than a decade ago, with average dam levels at 95.5% in August, compared with 55% in 2016, according to Absa.
South Africa has recorded 4 188 laboratory-confirmed measles cases since the start of the year, with 125 new cases reported in the latest week monitored by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD).
UN officials said that efforts to curb Ebola in eastern Congo were beginning to show results but stressed that the epidemic remained "massive" and would take months to bring under control.
A hacker group has claimed to have breached the FBI. The “ShinyHunters” claimed it had stolen data on thousands of FBI employees. Reuters was able to partially verify the group’s claims, with zero comment from the Bureau as yet. One 24-year old Dutch person has been arrested regarding the case.
Since January 2026, at least 196 people have been gunned down in mass shootings in South Africa. Ten people were fatally shot in Cape Town, while 17 were killed in Carletonville and Johannesburg, pointing to a trend of increased mass killings.
Acting Police Minister Firoz Cachalia has tasked experienced senior police generals – crime intelligence head Lt-Gen Dumisani Khumalo and KwaZulu-Natal police commissioner Lt-Gen Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi – to lead investigations into the recent killings of 10 women in Ekurhuleni.
Former Crime Intelligence deputy Feroz Khan will face criminal charges for ignoring a subpoena and again failing to appear before the Madlanga Commission of Inquiry. The commission, meanwhile, has heard that when Khan eventually testifies, he should do so remotely and under certain conditions to avoid stress triggers.
Police deputy national commissioner Lt-Gen Shadrack Sibiya appeared in the Randburg Magistrate’s Court facing five charges, including the rape of an 18-year-old, the sexual grooming of a 16-year-old child of an employee, and a charge of trafficking in persons.
Drone surveillance and cooperation with SAPS and crime intelligence have helped reduce smash-and-grab attacks to “almost zero” along a section of Cape Town’s N7, according to a private security drone company.
The National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) has confirmed it will prosecute ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula on a charge of crimen injuria after he accused Bergview College principal Jaco Pieterse of raping a child. EFF leader Julius Malema will also be prosecuted on the same charge.
Agriculture Minister Willie Aucamp has opened the door for private companies to manufacture the Agricultural Research Council’s (ARC’s) foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) vaccine at scale, helping address constraints that have hampered local production during South Africa’s worst FMD outbreak.
The rate at which Pacific Ocean surface waters are warming during the current El Niño cycle is “highly unusual”, the South African Weather Service has warned, with existing temperature records being broken. University of Pretoria meteorology professor Willem Landman said El Niño is highly predictable, but its consequences are harder to forecast. Rainfall remained normal during two of the past seven El Niño events.
The Health Department has warned that Mpox cases are continuing to rise, reaching 22. Mpox is a viral infection that can cause a rash, fever, headaches and swollen lymph nodes, and spreads mainly through close contact. Of the 22 cases, 18 are in the Western Cape.
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