Monthly Market | October 2025
- albe9408
- Nov 7
- 11 min read
International
The U.S. government has shut down after a funding deadlock in Congress, halting non-essential operations and forcing hundreds of thousands of federal workers off the job until a deal is reached. Non-farm payroll numbers were pushed out due to the shutdown. US consumer confidence — fell in September to a five-month low, with both present conditions and six-month expectations weakening on worries about jobs and the broader economy.
US inflation hits 3% for first time since January. This reading came in below the market expectation of 3.1% but rose to 3% in September from 2.9% in August. Wall Street rallied after the data release, as it likely cements another rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Wall Street’s fear gauge, the VIX, fell 5.6%, signalling relative calm in markets.
UK inflation was unchanged for the third consecutive month while retail sales show surprising growth. Eurozone purchasing managers’ surveys showed business activity hit a 17-month high in October, supported by the strongest increase in new orders in two-and-a-half years.
US-China trade negotiations dampened demand for safe-haven assets and saw the price of gold dropping back to almost $4000 per ounce. After two days of extensive talks in Malaysia, top negotiators from both sides reached a preliminary agreement on export controls, fentanyl, agricultural purchases, and shipping levies.
Presidents Trump and Xi reached a trade deal, easing tensions in fierce US-China rivalry. China agreed to suspend export controls on rare earths while Trump said China will also buy "massive" amounts of soybeans and other farm products. The US will also lower tariffs to 10% (prev. 20%) on Chinese imports that were imposed to curb the flow of the drug fentanyl.
Gold
The gold price has been driven by investors seeking safety from mounting economic and geopolitical uncertainty alongside expectations of further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. The metal’s rally has further been driven by solid central bank buying, inflows into gold exchange traded funds and a weak dollar.
The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 bps to a target range of 3.75%–4.00% at its October 2025 meeting, in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are seen likely to hold their policy rates steady.
Donald Trump’s Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal frees Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and starts a phased troop withdrawal. The US is set to deploy up to 200 troops to Israel with the goal of establishing a task force to support stabilisation efforts in Gaza. However, no Americans are expected to be deployed into the Palestinian enclave, according to US officials.
Israel has launched new strikes on Gaza after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the military to immediately carry out "powerful" attacks in which at least nine people have been killed. Israel and Hamas are accusing each other of violating the ceasefire, while Israel's defence minister says Hamas attacked Israeli soldiers in Gaza. Hamas denies this.
The International Court of Justice issued an advisory opinion stating that Israel is obligated to ensure that the basic needs of Gaza’s civilian population are met. A panel of 11 judges added that Israel must support the relief efforts provided by United Nations entities within the Gaza Strip.
The situation in Gaza remains tense, with the ceasefire facing significant challenges. Continuous monitoring and diplomatic efforts are crucial to prevent further escalation and to ensure that humanitarian aid can reach those affected by the conflict. The international community is closely watching the developments, hoping for a sustainable resolution to the ongoing crisis.
China’s factory activity remained in contraction for a sixth consecutive month — the longest slump since 2019 — even as equities posted their strongest monthly rally in seven years, buoyed by Beijing’s long-awaited 500-billion-yuan ($70 billion) stimulus to spur investment amid mounting provincial debt pressures.
OPEC+ is considering fast-tracking its latest output hike, adding ~500,000 barrels a day over three months to claw back market share. This might see a further decline in oil prices.
Brent crude oil
South Africa
South Africa’s financial sector has achieved a major victory, restored global confidence and set a new benchmark for regulatory excellence. The country’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list marks a pivotal milestone, underscoring sustained efforts to strengthen anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing frameworks. At present, 20 countries remain on the greylist.
SA was removed from the greylist in less time than the average for countries delisted since June 2017
Nathi Mthethwa dies: Nathi Mthethwa, South Africa’s Ambassador to France, has died at 58. French authorities say that initial inquiries into his death suggest it may have been a deliberate act. There were no signs of struggle before he apparently fell from the 22nd floor of Paris’ 34-storey Hyatt Regency Paris Étoile hotel. He was seriously implicated in several commissions, including the ongoing Madlanga Commission.
The Constitutional Court has ruled that fathers are now entitled to the same parental leave as mothers. The court, in its judgment, found the law at present to be discriminatory to fathers and unfair and unconstitutional. Following this judgment, mothers and fathers will be able to split their four months of leave post-birth equally.
South Africa’s annual inflation rate ticked up to 3.4% in September 2025 from 3.3% in August, slightly below market forecasts of 3.5%. It remains within the official South African Reserve Bank's target range of 3%-6%, but dampens expectations of a rate cut in November.
Business confidence in South Africa edged up in September as the index rose to 121.1 (from 120.0 in August), boosted by tourism, exports and rising precious-metal prices
South Africa has a gambling problem, and it has exploded since the Covid-19 lockdowns and it is estimated that 50% of the country’s working population gamble, and turnover in 2025 is likely to exceed R1.5trillion.
South Africa will lift its long-standing moratorium on unconventional gas exploration, including shale resources, once new regulations are gazetted later this month. The move is expected to reopen the door to investment in the country’s vast Karoo Basin, estimated to hold up to 390 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable shale gas
South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) Governor Lesetja Kganyago said that the country has entered an era of “low and stable inflation” and confirmed that discussions with the National Treasury are at an advanced stage to formally lower South Africa’s inflation target. It seems as if the mid-term budget might be the event for such an announcement.
SA Inflation, YoY % change
The SA Revenue Service needs another R35 billion in revenue, although it is on track to meet its 2025/26 baseline target. Sars has collected about R39.3 billion so far this fiscal year, surpassing the R37.5 billion needed to meet its baseline goal of R100 billion, which the service achieved in the 2024/25 fiscal year.
South African prisons are gearing up for the introduction of cell phone signal-blocking technology to prevent inmates from ordering crimes from behind prison walls. Cape Town Mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis has recently expressed his shock after discovering an extortion racket run inside Pollsmoor Prison.
The finding by the East London Magistrates’ Court that EFF leader Julius Malema is guilty of an offence for firing a firearm at a rally in 2018 could be a significant step in the continued weakening of his party. But, if he can convince supporters he has been unfairly treated, he might well turn the appeals process into a campaigning tool ahead of the local elections. The case has been postponed to 23 January 2026 when sentencing will take place.
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) expired, ending decades of U.S. trade preferences and exposing African exporters to new tariffs and competitive pressures. The White House is considering keeping the duty-free access agreement going for a short period. Meanwhile, SA’s trade minister says that after preliminary talks, formal tariff negotiations are about to begin.
What's been driving the SA Market? Not SA growth...
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YTD performance as at 30 September 2025
Snippets from the market.
For the first time in 1,400 years, the Church of England has elected its very first female archbishop. Sarah Mullally will be the first female head in her role as the Archbishop of Canterbury.
DStv subscribers may not see immediate changes following the recent acquisition of MultiChoice by French media conglomerate Canal+, but the takeover signals a transformation in South Africa’s media landscape – and a global future for local content.
On Wednesday, 29 October, Minister of Public Works and Infrastructure Dean Macpherson unveiled the South African Construction Action Plan (Sacap) — a new framework to restore accountability, fix failing projects and end what he called “the days of doing business with the government without delivering”.
Former president Jacob Zuma faced another legal defeat in the Gauteng High Court which determined he is responsible for his legal costs amounting to R29 million in the arms deal corruption case. The judge in former president Jacob Zuma’s legal fees case has questioned whether it would be appropriate for the court to attach his pension.
Alistair Ruiters, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s investment adviser since April and a former director-general of trade and industry, is being tipped to become South Africa’s next ambassador to the United States. He is already acting as South Africa’s chief trade negotiator with the US.
The South African government has been accused of breaking its own laws and violating its commitments to “silencing the guns” by selling arms to military juntas or states that are committing human rights abuses. South Africa is selling arms to the African countries of Mali, Guinea, Gabon, and Burkina Faso.
Election analysts say strong by-election showings by the Patriotic Alliance and ActionSA are setting the stage for fiercely contested local government elections in 2026. The last round of by-elections was held in the Eastern Cape, Gauteng, Limpopo, the Northwest, and the Western Cape. Analysts say the parties’ by-election wins in Soweto and Northwest mark a turning point as the ANC continues to lose ground. Dr Piet Crowcamp warns that it is too early to extrapolate such results but does acknowledge that the ANC has a massive problem facing the 2026 municipal elections.
The DA in Tshwane has written to city manager Johann Mettler demanding an investigation after the city’s water tanker bill surged from R140 million in 2024 to R777 million in 2025. DA Tshwane mayoral candidate Cilliers Brink said because of the risk of internal interference in such an investigation, the matter is also being reported to the public protector as a potential form of maladministration.
State-owned Transnet plans to invest R127 billion over five years in modernising rail lines and upgrading ports, its chief executive Michelle Phillips said. The group allocated R24 billion to infrastructure in the previous financial year and has budgeted R25 billion for the current year. Phillips said potential projects include the Richards Bay dry-bulk terminal, and the Pier 2 container concession in Durban.
Minister of Electricity and Energy, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, announced that the government plans to revive its mothballed pebble bed modular reactor programme as part of its new energy blueprint, which aims to derive more than half of South Africa’s electricity from clean energy sources by 2039. The R2.23 trillion Integrated Resource Plan 2025 will see most of South Africa’s electricity generated by nuclear and renewable sources such as wind and solar by 2039. Much of the needed capital will be sourced from the private sector.
SA's changing energy mix
The government plans to add 105,000MW to the grid by 2039,
according to the IRP 2025. Wind, solar and gas will make up 53%.
Two Government of National Unity parties, GOOD and Rise Mzansi, have partnered with Build One SA (BOSA) to contest the 2026 local government elections as a new political party named Unite for Change.
The African National Congress has warned of an imminent, country-wide recall of its poor-performing councillors. The proof is in the eating…
The ANC has acknowledged that criminal networks have penetrated its ranks, deepened governance failures and eroding public trust. ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula said the party had been infiltrated by criminal elements, including organised cartels, which have damaged the organisation.
The National Prosecuting Authority has asked the KwaZulu-Natal High Court to issue an order compelling Jacob Zuma’s long-delayed corruption trial to proceed. It wants the trial to get under way regardless of any further appeals or applications.
Former Passenger Rail Agency of SA CEO, Lucky Montana, failed to declare R36million of income over 10 years to the SA Revenue Service, and more than R2 million in capital gains.
The ANC is facing renewed pressure over its finances after ActionSA and the DA renewed their bid to have the party’s R102 million debt deal with Ezulweni Investments investigated by the Electoral Commission of SA for potential breaches of funding legislation.
South Africa’s agricultural industry leant towards a positive trajectory in the third quarter, with strong crop performance lifting the overall outlook despite lingering challenges in the livestock sector.
The Department of Agriculture has announced that South Africa has signed an agreement that allows South African farmers to export apricots, peaches, nectarines, plums, and prunes to China for the first time. The deal comes as the government is working to find new markets after the United States imposed a 30% tariff on South African goods earlier this year.
Expropriation for public purposes is envisaged as the government embarks on its multiyear, R440 billion project to roll out 14 000 km of transmission lines and more than 170 substations, Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said.
The US National Weather Service announced that the La Niña weather pattern is back, bringing hope to South African maize and other grain farmers this summer season. La Niña typically brings above-average rains to southern Africa, and this one is expected to persist into early 2026.
Madagascar's new military ruler Michael Randrianirina has been sworn in as president of the African island nation after a coup he led to oust President Andry Rajoelina.
A study commissioned by US-based EnerGeo Alliance says recent oil and gas discoveries in Namibia’s Orange Basin present South Africa with a unique opportunity to derisk its own upstream development and add billions of rand to GDP annually.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has suspended the Inspector-General of Intelligence, Imtiaz Fazel, after a complaint involving alleged improper property deals worth R120 million.
Twenty years of unfriendly policies that failed to support exploration have caused South Africa to lose out on a generation of new mines, said Anglo American CEO Duncan Wanblad. Much of this can be laid at the door of Gwede Mantashe and the ANC’s mining policy.
The DA has blamed the ANC for the most recent decline in formal employment as reported by Stats SA, which reported that 229 000 jobs were shed in the 12 months to June 2025. They blamed the ANC for businesses avoiding full-time hires and said the party’s labour laws are too rigid, punitive, and anti-growth.
Absa's Purchasing Managers' Index survey showed that manufacturing sentiment improved in September, driven by strong domestic demand.
The US State Department has released an overview of South Africa’s economy that makes no mention of “white genocide” claims made by President Donald Trump. However, the SA report flags the uncertainty created by land expropriation laws and other race-based laws, saying these were making it difficult for US companies operating in the country. The State Department’s report also flags South Africa’s endemic corruption, high crime rate, and competition regime.
South Africa's R50 Trillion Protection Gap
Former Democratic Republic of Congo president Joseph Kabila was sentenced to death in absentia by a military court that convicted him of war crimes, treason, and crimes against humanity.
Wildfires have destroyed about a third of Namibia's Etosha National Park, a roughly 20 000 square-kilometre tourist destination known for its wildlife.
Hurricane Melissa has claimed dozens of lives and thousands of people have been evacuated to shelters. Hurricane Melissa is now passing through the Bahamas and is expected to hit Bermuda late Thursday evening. At least 34 people across Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti have sadly lost their lives. Authorities in Haiti said at least 25 people, including children, have been killed.
China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, has talked up the possibility of “high-level exchanges” in a call with Japanese counterpart Toshimitsu Motegi, hinting at a potential meeting between President Xi Jinping and Japan’s new premier, Sanae Takaichi.
Sidelined police minister Senzo Mchunu and his predecessor Bheki Cele collectively had dealings with various figures, from questionable ANC-aligned Brown Mogotsi to crime-accused Vusimuzi ‘Cat’ Matlala and a taxi boss’ convict son who was later murdered.
25.08.1950 — the date of the first video game ever publicly demonstrated. It was called Bertie the Brain.
Glacier Invest’s economic outlook 28 October 2025:
Our current assessment of the global macro- economic backdrop can be summarised as: “global growth will remain above its historically trend, supported by accommodative fiscal and monetary from 3 important growth engine drivers being China, Germany, and US”. Hence why, from an asset allocation perspective, we are still advocating for clients to remain neutral to positive on local and global equities, especially cyclical assets like EM equities, SA Equity, US – Non – AI Equities.
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