Monthly Market | August 2025

Women’s month

• 43% of South African households are female led.

• 8% of South African woman feel confident about retiring comfortable.

• 71% of women now invest in the stock market, a notable rise driven by younger generations (global stats)

• Studies show that women achieve better investment returns than men by up to 1.8%.  Women achieved higher returns while taking on less risk than men.

• In South Africa, the unemployment rate for women is 35.9%, compared to 31.0% for men, indicating a widening gender gap in the labour force

 International

The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) and international media organisations have condemned yet another attack on journalists in Gaza, after Israeli airstrikes on Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis killed five media workers on Monday, 25 August 2025.

In total, 21 people were killed in the double-strike attack on the hospital, with a second missile hitting first responders who had arrived to help those injured in the initial bombing, according to reports by Al Jazeera and BBC.

The Hamas-run civil defence agency in Gaza says Israel has already demolished more than 1,500 homes in part of Gaza City since launching a ground operation there this month. The US opted out as the UN Security Council condemned the "manmade crisis" in Gaza.  The head of the World Food Programme (WFP) says more food aid is reaching Gaza but it's still far from enough to prevent widespread starvation.

Israel’s policies and actions in Gaza meet the legal definition of genocide, according to a new resolution backed by 86% of voters at the International Association of Genocide Scholars, the leading association in the field.

Federal Reserve's vice chair, Michelle Bowman, said recent weak job data underscores the concerns about labour market fragility and strengthens confidence in forecast that three interest-rate cuts will likely be appropriate this year.

The US annual inflation rate remained at 2.7% in in July 2025, the same as in June and below forecasts of 2.8%.

Fed Chair Powell signalled openness to a 17 September rate cut, boosting odds from ~75% to 90%.  He stated that risks to the job market were rising but also noting that inflation remained a threat and a decision was not set in stone.

The Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates by 0.25% bringing the benchmark Bank Rate from 4.25% down to 4.00%.  This marks the fifth rate cut since August 2024 as the UK grapples with rising unemployment and sticky inflation.

United States Fed Funds Interest Rate

Trading Economics

US President Donald Trump’s higher tariffs on imports from dozens of countries kicked in on 7 August, leaving major trade partners such as Switzerland, Brazil and India hurriedly searching for a better deal.

South Africa

Consumer inflation has climbed to a 10-month high, putting extra pressure on household budgets. Stats SA said the rate rose to 3.5% in July, up from 3% in June. Food inflation rose to its highest level in 18 months, helping to push headline inflation above the Reserve Bank’s 3% target.  The SARB projects, under its lower 3% target scenario, an average headline inflation of 3.3% in 2025–26.

Government outlined support measures for local companies that will be hit by a 30% US tariff that came into effect, including exemptions from certain competition rules, and financial support facilities. South African officials say the US tariffs could cause 30 000 to 100 000 job losses, especially in the agriculture and car manufacturing industries. The government’s support programme will include a working capital facility and plant and equipment facility to address short to medium term needs across all industries, as well as ways to cushion the impact of job losses via the Unemployment Insurance Fund. The US has still not responded to South Africa’s proposals on the Trump tariffs, but President Cyril Ramaphosa had a telephone conversation with President Trump, with the two leaders agreeing to further engagements on bilateral trade matters.

A 30% tariff on South African citrus would push up prices by about $4.25 a carton in the US, putting South Africa at risk of losing market share to Chile and Peru, which face only a 10% tariff.  Ministers Parks Tau and John Steenhuisen said increasing the standard of our citrus quality could expand access to the EU and China, and noted potential new export routes to Japan, Thailand and Vietnam, as well as across Africa.

Daily Maverick

As far as US tariffs are concerned, South Africa is currently treated in line with Libia and Algiers. 

Daily Maverick

President Cyril Ramaphosa has officially raised the limit for private donations to political parties to R30 million a year. He acted on a resolution taken by the National Assembly in May after a revision of the limit, and the threshold for declaring donations by parliament’s home affairs committee. Like the donation limit, the declaration threshold has also been doubled to donations of more than R200 000. The original limits were set in 2018 when the National Assembly passed the Political Party Funding Act.  So much for supporting transparency…

Despite the onset of steep U.S. tariffs on South African exports, the JSE Top 40 index edged higher, while the central bank maintained that the economic impact would be modest and inflation broadly unchanged.  The South African market is characterized by its narrowness, with a limited number of stocks driving most returns, making it challenging for broad-based investment strategies. This environment creates opportunities for skilled stock pickers who can identify undervalued or high-potential stocks, thus potentially outperforming the market.  It’s a stock pickers market!

The local index reached another high of 103 266, before declining again.  As so many times before, a sharp rerating as we had in April, after Trump’s liberation day tariff announcements, again led to a sharp bull run.  Volatility is your friend, not your enemy.

FTSE/JSE All Share J203 | From 27/08/2024 to 27/08/2025

Fund Focus

South Africa’s trade balance widened to a preliminary surplus of R22 billion in June, up from a downwardly revised R20 billion in May, according to data released by the SA Revenue Service.

South Africa Balance of Trade

Trade Economics

Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has conceded that the price of electricity is not sustainable and has ordered a review of the electricity tariffs. This comes as scores of electricity payers protested over soaring prices in Tembisa and elsewhere. Ramokgopa said South Africa is on the brink of energy poverty, with poor households being forced to make choices between a loaf of bread and buying prepaid electricity.

Snippets from the market

• Asian Development Bank (ADB) revised growth forecasts down for developing Asia and the Pacific to 4.7% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, citing rising trade uncertainty and the impact of higher U.S. tariffs.

• The commission of inquiry into allegations of corruption in the criminal justice system is due to start hearings on1 September.

• 60% of investors say expertise and knowledge in financial planning and investments is the single most important quality in an advisor.

• Commodity-exporting emerging markets, particularly in Latin America and Africa, are seeing improved growth prospects thanks to resilient prices for metals and energy. This is supporting local currencies and equity markets despite global growth concerns.

• A mega donation deal may turn Curro into a non-profit organization, opening doors for lower-income learners, but current Curro parents shouldn’t expect cheaper fees anytime soon.

• National commissioner General Fannie Masemola said the police have intensified the war on drugs, destroying R420 million worth of illicit substances in Gauteng.

• Cabinet ministers have spent more than R273 million on travel since the start of the seventh administration, a 10-fold increase that belies Pretoria’s austerity narrative and points to its expanding diplomatic engagements in a fractured global order.

• Higher Education and Training Minister Buti Manamela has appointed administrators to three sector education and training authorities (Setas) to stabilise the troubled sector.

• The ANC says it will take disciplinary steps against MP Malusi Gigaba and suspended police minister and MP Senzo Mchunu as their recent public statements damage the party.

• The ANC will face its most devastating loss yet in the next local government elections if it does not urgently address the cost-of-living crisis and service-delivery backlogs. The DA’s polling, which has previously been accurate, suggests that if South Africans voted today, the ANC would not get more than 20% of the vote in Johannesburg.

• The SA Human Rights Commission has launched an investigation into allegations of racism against Sport, Arts and Culture Minister Gayton McKenzie after he allegedly used derogatory language to refer to black people decades ago. McKenzie’s old tweets allegedly using the K word resurfaced on X, sparking outrage and calls for his removal as minister.

• The Goodyear SA plant in Kariega (Uitenhage) shut its doors last Friday after unions secured an improved severance deal in terms of which each retrenched employee would receive R100 000, plus four weeks’ pay for every year worked. The workers will also get their August salary and 2025 bonus entitlement accrual. More than 900 people were employed at the plant, whose closure is a big blow to the Nelson Mandela Bay economy.

• Satellite internet provider Starlink supports Communications Minister Solly Malatsi’s move to issue a directive that would enable foreign telecom operators to enter the South African market using a different set of empowerment rules.

• South African salaries were unable to keep up again with prices in July, as average take-home pay continued its months-long downward trend and cost-of-living pressures mounted, particularly from sharply higher municipal service tariffs.

• The Hawks have made a breakthrough in dismantling a transnational rhino horn trafficking network worth millions of rand. A seven-year investigation by the Hawks’ Wildlife Tracking Unit uncovered a fraudulent scheme estimated to involve 964 rhino horns valued at R250 million destined for illegal markets in Southeast Asia. This resulted in the arrest of the former owner of a herd of 2 000 white rhinos, John Hume, and five co-accused who appeared before the Pretoria Magistrate’s Court.

• The Western Cape High Court stymied government efforts to explore for gas offshore from Mossel Bay, setting aside the granting of an environmental authorisation to TotalEnergies for offshore oil and gas exploration activities, and remitting the matter back to the department.

• Eskom has launched a new renewable energy programme that will, for the first time, allow large businesses to buy solar power directly from the utility. The programme is aimed at companies looking to lower their carbon emissions and secure clean energy over the long term. The power utility is putting 291MW of solar power capacity up for grabs through long-term contracts.

• Botswana’s Ministry of Trade and Entrepreneurship said the US has cut the country’s export tariff rate to the American market from 37% to 15% under a revised reciprocal tariff structure.

• Despite Donald Trump’s tariffs crusade (with a $21 billion jump in customs duty collections), the US government’s budget deficit for July ballooned by almost 20% to $291 billion.

• United Nations Trade and Development agency (UNCTAD) called for a global plastics treaty, highlighting the transboundary issue of plastic pollution and the need for comprehensive international governance.

• President Cyril Ramaphosa described South Africa’s economy as being in a ‘state of emergency’ and emphasized the need to diversify export markets and invest in Africa’s free trade.  South Africa was singled out in President Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff increase on August 7, which has strained the relationship between the two countries.

• Daily Maverick carried video footage and recordings of an attempt by suspended Independent Development Trust CEO, Tebogo Malaka and spokesperson Phasha Makgolane, to bribe its investigative journalist, Pieter-Louis Myburgh, with R60 000 in cash to suppress an investigation into Malaka’s personal dealings and questionable IDT contracts. 

• The Administrative Adjudication of Road Traffic Offences (Aarto) Act has been in operation in Johannesburg and Pretoria but will be further rolled out on 1 December to apply in 69 municipalities, and in the other 144 on 1 April 2026. The points demerit system, the core of the act, will be rolled out nationally on 1 September next year.

• Basic Education Minister Siviwe Gwarube has officially published the first two regulations under the Basic Education Laws Amendment Act. She said that the gazetted regulations related to key provisions of the South African Schools Act regarding capacity and admissions. On school capacity, the regulations state that from grade one to twelve, there must be one teacher to a maximum of 40 learners.

• Defence Minister Angie Motshekga has confirmed only one Oryx helicopter was deployed to assist after the recent floods in the Eastern Cape that claimed 103 lives. The lone helicopter arrived more than a week after the event, with Motshekga ascribing the delay to “technical challenges”. Defence experts say this represents yet another example of the breakdown in the SA Air Force’s operational capacity and exposes serious structural deficiencies in the state’s disaster management framework.

• The Democratic Alliance is demanding an investigation after it obtained evidence of a R34 million charter flight to transport over 200 SANDF personnel to Cuba. The passengers, including senior generals and students, allegedly went to Havana to attend a graduation with Cobra Aviation, flying two legs between OR Tambo and Havana from 13 to 20 July 2025.

• The African National Congress has recommitted itself to the Government of National Unity, and said it is going to start a process of expanding the number of parties in the coalition.

• ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa said that the decision by SA Communist Party to contest the 2026 municipal elections independently of the ANC is a blow for national democratic change, and that the ANC disagrees with it. 

• The DA has published a private member’s bill proposing constitutional amendments to prevent individuals removed from key state institutions for misconduct from re-entering public office through election. This includes impeached judges and former heads of Chapter 9 institutions.

• Gauteng premier Panyaza Lesufi has removed or reshuffled several heads of department after a damning report that revealed about R1.8 billion in budget underspending, including missed service delivery performance targets.

• South Africa’s military chief met with Iranian leaders to strengthen defence ties, sparking domestic controversy over the bypassing of government protocol and concerns about straining relations with Western allies.

• Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana has dampened the expectation that he will make an announcement confirming the move to a 3% inflation target in the medium-term budget policy statement, which will be tabled in parliament in either October or November. This follows the announcement last week by the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy committee that it has a preference to target inflation at 3% instead of in the official 3% to 6% range, and that its forecasting would be based on this target.

• The wage strike by pilots affiliated to trade union Solidarity at low-cost carrier FlySafair ended after parties signed a four-year wage agreement for above-inflation wage increases.

• Despite the looming threat of tariffs, South Africa’s domestic new-vehicle market gained momentum in July, which delivered the highest monthly sales since October 2019. In the 10th straight month of increased volumes, 51 383 units were delivered last month, up 15.6% from July 2024.

• Health Minister Aaron Motsoaledi says the government does not know how many foreigners are using public health facilities because the data is not being measured.

• An experimental flu-fighting drug combination that includes a compound found in chocolate is more effective than the current most used influenza treatment, researchers reported in PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences). In test tubes and in animal experiments, the combination of theobromine and arainosine was more effective than Roche’s Tamiflu against even the deadliest flu strains, including bird flu and swine flu, the researchers said. Theobromine is a stimulant naturally found in cacao plants and combined with arainosine – a synthetic compound that interferes with the ability of cells to repair themselves – they effectively target proteins on the virus so it cannot survive. 

• U.S. consumers are now significantly less interested in buying American-made goods than they were three years ago, according to a new survey. The share of consumers expressing a preference for products "made in the USA" went down from 60 percent in May 2022 to 50 percent this June.

• The inaugural National Convention of the National Dialogue concluded in Pretoria with a powerful message: South Africa’s future must be shaped by its citizens.  Delivering the closing address, Lindiwe Mazibuko, Co-Deputy Chairperson of the Eminent Persons Group, highlighted the importance of inclusivity, stressing that the Convention marked the beginning of a national process owned by communities, rather than a once-off event.

• Energy regulator Nersa confirmed in a statement on Wednesday evening that it has entered into a settlement with Eskom, following the mistakes it made in determining the utility’s revenue for the current and next two financial years. As a result, South Africa’s hard-pressed consumers will have to fork out R54 billion more through higher electricity tariffs.

• Cape Town Mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis is calling on acting Police Minister Firoz Cachalia to urgently deploy more resources to support the Western Cape’s anti-gang unit. This follows yet another spate of gang violence in the city, including a triple murder in Eerste River.

• Former International Relations and Cooperation Minister Naledi Pandor said that the African National Congress has lost its glory, and South Africans now look on the former liberation movement with "disdain".

• EFF leader Julius Malema has been convicted of hate speech by the Western Cape Equality Court, following remarks he made at a rally in 2022 saying “No white man is going to beat me up … you must never be scared to kill. A revolution demands that at some point there must be killing.”

• The Jannie Mouton Stigting has put an offer of R7.2 billion on the table to take Curro private, in what would be one of the biggest acts of education philanthropy in corporate South Africa.

• Transport Minister Barbara Creecy has announced that 11 of the 25 private train operating companies that applied to operate routes on Transnet’s rail network have met the requirements to do so and will now enter into contract negotiations to gain access to the network and begin operating the routes.

• South Africa’s agricultural sector and the state have embarked on a partnership to tackle one of the biggest threats to rural food production, namely the country’s collapsing rural road network. Agri SA and Agbiz have teamed up with the departments of Public Works & Infrastructure and of Transport to run a data-driven pilot project in the Free State, aimed at prioritising and repairing critical agricultural transport routes.

• Ford Motors SA says it plans to lay off more than 470 employees as it seeks to adjust production capacity to match current and future market demands.

• SA Weather Service data predicts a rise in temperatures with dry conditions and little or no rain in the southern regions of South Africa, with adverse effects on winter grain crops especially in the Western Cape. Northern regions will experience a rapid rise in temperatures with heatwave conditions of up to 35°C in some areas. Indian Ocean temperatures show signs of reducing, creating La Niña conditions that bode well for precipitation in the northern summer rainfall areas in the coming season.

• The Board of Healthcare Funders has launched a fresh legal bid to overturn the National Health Insurance Act, asking the Constitutional Court to declare the legislation unlawful and invalid on the grounds that parliament failed to conduct a proper public consultation process.

Daily Maverick