Monthly Market | November 2025
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- 2 days ago
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International
The Group of 20 Leaders’ Summit ended in Johannesburg on Sunday, with President Cyril Ramaphosa saying he had achieved his goal of putting Africa and its development agenda at the forefront of the economic bloc. Despite the US boycotting the summit, South Africa managed to achieve a Leaders’ Declaration, which commits members to extend support to vulnerable economies confronting debt distress. President Cyril Ramaphosa declined an American offer to hand over the rotating G20 presidency to a junior diplomat at the summit. That ceremony took place between equivalent diplomats at the Department of International Relations and Cooperation in Pretoria on Tuesday. President Donald Trump subsequently posted on social media that he will not invite South Africa to next year’s summit in Miami.
As host of the G20, South Africa highlighted key priorities around inclusive growth, development finance and energy transition — offering a constructive platform for advancing regional interests amid the global environment. The G20 was a showcase of middle powers, both member states and invited heads of state. These include India and Brazil, to the EU, Australia and Canada; Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam; Turkey, the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. There were many bilateral meetings at the Nasrec meeting centre and around Johannesburg over the G20 weekend as many countries look to diversify trade after the US imposed punishing tariffs.
Iran is seeking a “peaceful” nuclear agreement with the US, aiming to resolve a decades-long dispute, although it has reiterated that it will not compromise national security.
a Russian commander on the ground has confirmed that Russian forces have pushed deep into the Ukrainian city of Kupiansk, moving southwards to capture a series of train stations. Putin says the US peace plan could be the basis of a Ukraine deal but threatens to take land by force if Kyiv doesn’t withdraw.
The UN Security Council has voted through a US proposal to end all hostilities in Gaza and establish an international “stabilisation” force. The “Board of Peace” will be chaired by Donald Trump. Hamas has so far refused to disarm itself, creating an immediate obstacle to this process. Since a ceasefire took effect in October 2025, violence has not ended. Israeli air-strikes and raids hit Gaza repeatedly, with dozens killed, including children, even weeks after the ceasefire. Meanwhile, in the occupied West Bank, arrests and military operations have intensified. Humanitarian aid remains far below needs, and many displaced Gazans still lack food, shelter and medical care. International calls for intervention and reconstruction — including rebuilding Gaza — are growing.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has called US President Donald Trump’s false claims that South Africa is perpetrating genocide against Afrikaners and confiscating land from white people, “blatant misinformation”.
Markets have been kind over the last six months with a massive Resource-driven local market stealing the show.
Markets from 28/05/2025 to 28/11/2025
South Africa
Ratings agency S&P Global upgraded South Africa’s (SA) foreign currency long -term sovereign credit rating from BB- to BB (see chart 1) and its local currency long -term sovereign credit rating from BB to BB+, importantly maintaining their positive outlook on the rating on 14 November 2025.
S&P's sovereign credit ratings for South Africa
In a major monetary policy reform, the inflation target that the Reserve Bank will aim for has been set at 3% within two years, with significant consequences for fiscal metrics such as tax revenue, nominal GDP, and government expenditure over the next three years. The rand strengthened and bond yields dropped, causing a mini bond rally.
The SARB, on the back of a lower-than-expected inflation figure (3.6% vis 3.7% expected) lowered the prime lending rate with 0.25% to 6.75%.
Acting Police Minister Firoz Cachalia says the government is rolling out a national anti-gang strategy in Gauteng and other hotspot provinces to curb the surge in organised crime, which he admits has reached alarming levels.
The Reserve Bank flagged crypto assets and stablecoins as a new risk to the country’s financial stability, saying their rapid growth and limited regulation could allow risks to build up undetected. The bank’s lead macroprudential specialist, Herco Steyn, said they do not refer to it as cryptocurrency because that would endorse it as legal tender, which they do not. The new risk category is called technology-enabled financial innovation, but the Reserve Bank flagged only crypto and stablecoins as a sub-risk.
Former president Jacob Zuma’s daughter Nkosazana Bonganini Zuma-Mncube has opened a criminal case against her stepsister and MK party MP Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla in connection with the 17 South African men who were allegedly lured to Russia and sent to fight in Ukraine without their consent. The Hawks is investigating Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla for allegations of human trafficking, illegal recruitment, exploitation, and fraud in the recruitment of the men into the Russian Wagner mercenary group. She has resigned as MP.
The European Union has announced €750 million in new investments to modernise South Africa’s transport and energy infrastructure, jointly manufacture batteries for electric vehicles, and increase the production of vaccines and other pharmaceuticals in South Africa. The EU and South Africa also signed a landmark Clean Trade and Investment Partnership agreement and an agreement to jointly develop South Africa’s critical minerals while ensuring that the processing would be done in South Africa.
South Africa’s agricultural sector has welcomed US President Donald Trump’s signing of an executive order allowing a range of food products to be exempt from his punitive tariff regime. The Trump administration said the goods – including oranges, bananas, mangoes, coconuts, avocados, and tomatoes – could not be produced in sufficient quantities domestically.
Former Minister of Public Enterprises Malusi Gigaba has been charged with corruption in the Palm Ridge Magistrate’s Court. Gigaba appeared alongside four other accused in the matter of a controversial Transnet-Chinese diesel locomotive deal worth billions of rand. Former Transnet executives Brian Molefe, Siyabonga Gama, Anoj Singh and engineer Thamsanqa Jiyane are co-accused.
ANC secretary general Fikile Mbalula has dismissed reports that President Cyril Ramaphosa has been asked to step down as the country’s head of state after the conclusion of the G20 Summit. The president confronted the members head on and it seems as if they realised that should he be removed, the ANC would be in dire straits during the municipal elections.
Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa says Eskom is making progress toward ensuring a stable electricity supply following the extension of the Koeberg Nuclear Power Station’s operating licence. Earlier this month, the National Nuclear Regulator approved a 20-year licence extension for both Koeberg Unit 1 and Unit 2.
On DA leader John Steenhuisen’s request, President Cyril Ramaphosa has replaced Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment Dion George with Willie Aucamp, a Member of the National Assembly, and National Spokesperson of the Democratic Alliance. DA MP Alex Abrahams has also been appointed as the new Deputy Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition. The DA has resolved to open an investigation into the warring between party leader John Steenhuisen and its federal finance chairperson, Dion George, over the latter’s sacking as environment minister.
The SA Revenue Service has managed to collect R17.5 billion more in the first six months of the 2025/26 fiscal year than the budget forecast mainly due to higher domestic VAT and corporate tax collections.
The medium‑term budget policy statement delivered by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana makes clear that fiscal consolidation remains the anchor, but stronger‑than‑expected revenue collections – R19.3 billion above the 2025/25 budget estimate – allowed the Treasury to adjust spending plans.
The national Treasury will issue an infrastructure bond of at least R15 billion as the government steps up efforts to revive public investment and attract private capital into long-stalled projects.
Tech giant Google has agreed to pay South Africa’s traditional media houses more than R680 million as part of a settlement with competition authorities over lost revenues in the industry.
South African factories outperformed consensus expectations in September, said Stats SA, with local manufacturing output expanding by 0.3% year on year.
Minister of Home Affairs, Leon Schreiber, has taken a big step in making South Africa the preferred destination for international filmmakers by proposing easing requirements for visa applications for the sector, in a move also meant to boost tourism.
According to the SA Agricultural Machinery Association, tractor sales rose 12% year on year to 857 units in October.
The Industrial Gas Users Association South Africa is calling for the creation of a new structure under the Presidency to avert the ‘gas cliff’ faced by industrial consumers by 2030. The supply crunch will begin when their supply from Mozambique is halted by Sasol in 2028, and Sasol’s more expensive methane-rich gas bridging solution is terminated two years later. Meanwhile, Cape Town powered up the city’s new gas-to-energy plant at the Coastal Park Landfill.
Health Minister Aaron Motsoaledi announced the launch of an oral cholera vaccine, a historical first for South Africa to be manufactured locally, at the Chris Hani Baragwanath Academic Hospital in Soweto.
Businessman Collen Mashawana’s charitable foundation submitted documents containing thousands of signatures to the Independent Development Trust to claim salaries for participants in a government-funded employment scheme. Many of the workers did not receive their wages, despite putting in months of backbreaking work. A leading forensics firm found that the workers’ signatures were likely forged.
Jacob Zuma, the man John Hlophe must have felt he could always rely on, especially during his term as president of South Africa, stuck the blade in and got suspended from MKP after being the Deputy President. Meanwhile, the weekend special, Des van Rooyen, became the midnight special when he was fired just one day after being appointed as Chief Whip.
Jacob Zuma’s daughter ‘intentionally and unlawfully inflamed public unrest’ through her social media posts, exploiting her father’s imprisonment to fuel violence that left hundreds dead and cost the economy billions of rands, the State argued in the KZN high court on Monday 10 November. It seems as if the Zuma family are starting to feel the heat.
Acting Police Minister Firoz Cachalia says the disbandment of corruption-busting unit the Scorpions was a blunder, and that the problems South Africa now faces prove it. He also detailed the crimefighting methods he believes the country needs.
Forecast and Implied repo rate (end period)
After a volatile yet rewarding year for commodities, gold and platinum group metals (PGMs) have once again taken centre stage in the global market narrative — with South African mining equities leading the charge. The resource index as of 31 October 2025 is up 95% year to date, while the overall equity market (Capped SWIX) has gained 33.1%, driven largely by the strength in gold and platinum stocks as well as tech heavyweights Naspers and Prosus.
In what was a widely anticipated move, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana announced the reduction of the inflation target to 3%, with a tolerance band of 1 percentage point. The markets have reacted favourably to the downward revision in the inflation target. But slow economic growth and its potential to push debt and deficit levels higher than forecast remain nagging concerns. However, inflation, although under control, is not expected to reach the new target soon.
South Africa Inflation Rate | One Year Forecast
The South African Revenue Service is expected to rake in almost R20-billion more than the Treasury had pencilled in back in May, according to the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement.
Snippets from the market.
Japan has confirmed that it has complained to China about “extremely inappropriate” remarks by one of its diplomats towards Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, which the US characterised as threatening.
The Information Regulator has ordered SARS to release former president Jacob Zuma’s tax records and has eviscerated the agency for its ‘soft approach’ to Zuma’s tax non-compliance.
The National Treasury has proposed slapping the online gambling industry, including the popular sports betting companies, with a 20% tax on the gross gambling revenue of the online and interactive gambling industry.
Two chartered flights carrying Palestinians fleeing Gaza have landed at Johannesburg’s OR Tambo International Airport. The cases are being investigated
As the global economy embarks on a clean energy transition, an inconvenient truth stands out: slashing greenhouse gas emissions cannot be achieved without mining.
The Department of Agriculture has resolved to implement a comprehensive strategy to vaccinate the entire national cattle herd estimated to number about 7.2 million against foot-and-mouth disease.
Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen formally announced a new cooperation agreement with Vietnam, one of the region’s fastest-growing markets. The agreement unlocks new export pathways and scientific collaboration in crop production, plant protection, veterinary services, research, agricultural trade, and technology exchange.
France's development agency has agreed to give South African state-owned logistics group Transnet a R6 billion loan for clean energy initiatives.
The three recognised unions at Eskom – the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa, the National Union of Mineworkers, and Solidarity – are keeping to their wage demand of up to 15% and rejected Eskom’s offer.
A skills audit by the Department of Co-operative Governance & Traditional Affairs found that more than 300 councillors in KwaZulu-Natal alone are functionally illiterate, raising questions about how they managed multimillion-rand budgets and projects. According to reports, Cogta Minister Velenkosini Hlabisa has since called for education requirements for public representatives to be revisited, warning that illiteracy undermines oversight and accountability.
The IEC says it has set aside R2.1 billion for the next local elections and is preparing to be ready by the first Wednesday of November next year.
The North Gauteng High Court found that the National Energy Regulator of South Africa’s public participation process for the 2025/26 year to approve municipal tariffs to have been invalid, following a challenge by Afrikaans lobby group AfriForum. While the ruling does not set aside 2025’s tariff increase, it allows for more transparency in future in the setting of the electricity price.
South Africa appears poised for another favourable agricultural season, with the return of La Niña conditions, and the promise of above-average rainfall across the summer grain region. While the forecast bodes well for harvests, the potential for localised flooding and unseasonal heat may yet complicate outcomes.
The Northern Cape Division of the High Court in Kimberly ruled last Friday that rhino horn harvested from registered captive breeding operations can be exported, as such facilities are devoted to conservation and not commercial purposes – a decision that potentially signals the end of the almost five-decade ban on the global trade in the commodity.
Thanks to a man who allowed himself to be bitten by his pet snakes, scientists have developed the first broad-spectrum antivenom that neutralises the neurotoxins in 19 of the world’s deadliest snakes. The researchers found two antibodies in the man’s blood that were protective against neurotoxins commonly found in snakes in the elapid family, which includes mambas, cobras, coral snakes, taipans, and kraits.
South Africa’s fiscal position is improving, and Operation Vulindlela has entered its next phase with renewed momentum. Yet the programme still faces practical challenges in areas such as crime and municipal capacity that will determine how much private investment ultimately reaches the economy.
A spider-shaped construction robot named Charlotte is being developed in Sydney to 3D print a full-size house in roughly a day. Developers say the machine can autonomously form structural walls for about a 2,150-square-foot home using locally sourced materials. Instead of cement and bricks delivered by truck, Charlotte compacts sand, soil, and clean waste into layered walls on-site. Researchers argue that this single-machine approach removes long supply chains and many high-carbon steps.
What happens when you kick millions of teens off social media? Australia is about to find out with the ban across certain platforms (Snapchat, Facebook, Instragram, TikTok, etc.) starting from 10 December.
South Africa is one of the hardest working countries with 42.2 hours per week.
The World's hardest working countries
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