Monthly Market | July 2025
- albe9408
- Aug 6, 2025
- 10 min read
In a complete reversal of Trump relations with Russia, the White House has now announced new weapon shipments to Ukraine and threatened sanctions on anyone who buys Russian oil. Trump’s relationship with Vladimir Putin has frozen over, with the former accusing the latter of throwing “bullshit” his way. Nothing stings quite so much as a fragile ego spurned by a former bro in the Kremlin.
After much volatility in the price of Brent Crude oil since the beginning of the year, it seems as if the price per barrel has stabilised around $68.
Brent crude oil
Committees in the US House of Representatives have passed a bill – the US-South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Act of 2025 – submitted by Republican Ronny Jackson. The bill requires a full review of the bilateral relationship between the United States and South Africa and aims to identify South African government officials and ANC leaders eligible for the imposition of sanctions, as well as for other purposes. The findings on which the bill is based include the South African government’s siding with “malign actors” including Hamas and Iran, accusing Israel of genocidal actions in Gaza, and pursuing closer ties with the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation. The full House will vote on the bill after the current recess which lasts till September.
The International Court of Justice in The Hague delivered a landmark Advisory Opinion on the Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change, determining that governments are legally obliged to prevent harm to the climate system, and to address damage that has already occurred. This marks the first occasion of the ICJ addressing the issue of climate change and the obligations of countries in handling it.
The People’s Bank of China held the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5% after the country’s GDP grew 5.2% in Q2 2025. It seems as if the GDP rate has stabilised above 5%.
China GDP Annual Growth Rate
The European Central Bank opted to pause its rate-cutting cycle, keeping the benchmark policy rate unchanged at 2% y/y after inflation stabilised around its 2% target.
President Trump’s administration has continued to impose so-called “reciprocal” tariffs—ranging from 15% to 50%—on imports from countries with perceived trade imbalances. The broad automotive tariff of 25% also remains in effect.
Major new bilateral deals:
U.S.–EU trade deal (announced July 27, 2025): Most EU exports to the U.S. now face a 15% tariff, down from a threatened 30%, while some strategic sectors—like aircraft components, semiconductors, and agricultural goods—have zero tariffs. In return, the EU has committed to purchase up to $750 billion in U.S. energy, invest $600 billion and buy U.S. military equipment. However, steel and aluminum tariffs remain at 50%
U.S.–Japan deal: Tariffs on Japanese imports—including automobiles and auto parts—are cut from 25% to 15%, and Tokyo has pledged $550 billion in U.S. investments.
U.S.–Vietnam deal (effective July 2): U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese goods were halved—from 46% to 20%—though a 40% tariff applies to Chinese goods trans‑shipped via Vietnam to prevent evasion.
U.S.–Indonesia and U.S.–Philippines deals: Indonesia agreed to lower reciprocal tariffs from about 32% to 19%, and the Philippines has been offered tariff-free access in exchange for reciprocal duties—though the latter remains pending confirmation
In May, the U.S. and China agreed to temporarily reduce tariffs while continuing negotiations, with duties lowered from roughly 125% to 10% until mid-August. Talks resumed in Stockholm on July 28 to pursue further extensions or deals.
Starting August 1, 30% tariffs apply to all South African exports, prompting Pretoria to sign a framework “condition precedent” to negotiate a full deal. South Africa has protested the tariff as based on a “contested interpretation” and is seeking modifications.
Tensions between Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell arose during Trump's presidency (2017–2021) over interest rate policies. Trump frequently criticized Powell for raising interest rates, arguing it slowed economic growth and undermined his administration’s efforts to boost the economy. He even considered firing Powell, an unprecedented move that raised concerns about the Fed’s independence. Powell, however, maintained the Fed's apolitical stance and emphasized its commitment to managing inflation and employment. Trump recently visited Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the bank’s headquarters. Trump said he isn’t happy with the renovation costs, but he said he doesn’t think it’s necessary to fire Powell…
South Africa
The JSE All Share Index surpassed 100 000 points for the first time in history. Most other indices also reached all-time highs, but the local market did exceptional. Based on current valuations there is still more room to see markets tick up, especially on expectations of further rate cuts in 2025. The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to lower the repo rate by 25 bpts, bringing it down from 7.25% to 7.00%. The prime lending rate now stands at 10.50%. This marks the third repo rate cut this year, bringing the total reduction to 75 bpts for 2025. Two more might be expected before the end of the year. The SARB also signalled an implicit 3% inflation target. The rand also held its own which would have made offshore investments currency neutral. Since the beginning of the year, it was an emerging market (including South Africa) story.
Market Performance
From 31/12/2024 to 25/07/2025
FTSE/JSE All Share J203 | Satrix MSCI ACWI Feeder ETF | Satrix S&P 500 Feeder Portfolio | South African Rand (ZAR) | US Dollar (USD)
Police Minister Senzo Mchunu has been accused of colluding with alleged organised crime syndicates to undermine the work of police units. KwaZulu-Natal Police Commissioner Lt-Gen Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi made the dramatic allegations against Mchunu in an explosive media briefing in Durban. Mkhwanazi accused Mchunu of political involvement in cases being investigated by the police service’s task team for political killings in KZN and ordering the unit’s disbandment. The damning allegations have widespread political implications, given that Mchunu is among the senior ANC leaders set to contest for the party presidency at its national conference in 2027.
President Cyril Ramaphosa dismissed Higher Education Minister Nobuhle Nkabane in a move that paved the way for the passing of the Appropriations Bill in parliament on Wednesday. The DA had previously threatened not to approve the departmental budget votes of Higher Education’s Nkabane and Human Settlements headed by Thembisile Simelane, based on corruption allegations against the two ministers. The president appointed Mr Buti Manamela as the new Minister of Higher Education and Training, and Nomusa Dube-Ncube as Deputy Minister. Mr Manamela had been serving as Deputy Minister of Higher Education and Training.
After this, Government of National Unity partner the DA ended its withdrawal of support of the Appropriations Bill. The DA voted in favour of the Bill after it had previously vowed to withhold support for the budget allocations of the higher education and human settlements ministries, citing corruption allegations linked to the respective political heads.
Patriotic Alliance leader Gayton McKenzie has suspended his deputy Kenny Kunene from all party activities for a month. Kunene will be investigated after he was found at the home of Katiso "KT" Molefe, the alleged mastermind of DJ Somebody's murder in 2022, when the police arrived to arrest Molefe.
The Treasury is the latest government entity to suffer high-profile hacking of its IT infrastructure. The government's finance department said it identified malware on its Infrastructure Reporting Model website, the online infrastructure reporting and monitoring system.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has decided to suspend South Gauteng director of public prosecutions advocate Andrew Chauke pending an inquiry into his fitness to hold office. This comes after national prosecutions boss Shamila Batohi’s request in August 2023 for Chauke’s suspension in the wake of a lack of prosecutions and withdrawal of cases involving alleged state capture matters.
The government has formally notified Taiwan it will no longer recognise its diplomatic mission in Pretoria, reinforcing its adherence to the “One China” policy. The move follows a previous request by Pretoria for Taipei to relocate its representative office to Johannesburg, aligning with the downgraded status of the mission to a liaison office rather than a diplomatic mission.
South Africans are reporting lower levels of financial stress, but data shows that many in the middle class remain under severe financial pressure. The middle-income earners are considered the backbone of consumer spending, credit markets and household investment, and rising economic strain in this segment could limit economic recovery, drive defaults and deepen inequality. The middle class is in dire need for rate cuts, which, considering inflation data and the direction of bond yields, is ‘n high possibility for the rest of the year.
South Africca 20 Year bond Yield
The Department of Agriculture reported a new FMD (Foot and Mouth Disease) outbreak in the Free State, bringing the total to 270 across five provinces in South Africa — a state of affairs that has seen export bans imposed by trading partners and put individual operators in jeopardy, delivering a hammer blow to the livestock sector.
Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen has called on the private sector to help finance the procurement of crucial vaccines to contain the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) among cattle and to address other biosecurity concerns that threaten South Africa’s agricultural sector. Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is classified as a controlled animal disease under the Animal Diseases Act, 1984 (Act No. 35 of 1984), which mandates specific control measures, such as isolation and movement restrictions, enforced by Veterinary Services.
Cattle farmers are hit hard, and the sharp rise in beef prices will filter through to households and inflation.
Essential Biosecurity Measures Include:
Any cattle, sheep, or goats newly introduced to a farm must be kept separate from resident herds for at least 28 days.
Only introduce animals accompanied by a health declaration from known clean farms.
Prevent nose-to-nose contact between farm animals and animals outside the farm.
Maintain secure farm boundaries and restrict access for people and vehicles as much as possible.
Ensure that farm personnel have no contact with animals outside the property.
Provide clean clothing and washing facilities for all visitors and personnel and ensure thorough cleaning and disinfection of any vehicles and farming implements brought onto a property.
Regularly consult with the responsible private and state veterinarian and animal health technician to refine biosecurity measures.
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Snippets from the market
David Dabede “DD” Mabuza (64), the former South African Deputy President, died.
Former Transnet CEO Brian Molefe, his CFO Anoj Singh, the head of freight rail Siyabonga Gama and chief engineer Thamsanqa Jiyane were arrested on 32 charges of alleged fraud, corruption and contravening the Public Finance Management Act. They were later released on R50 000 bail each. The MK party has condemned the arrest of its MPs Brian Molefe and Siyabonga Gama.
South Africa’s mining sector delivered an unexpected improvement in May, despite widespread forecasts of a renewed contraction, with production edging up 0.2% year on year after April’s steep 7.7% contraction.
Platinum lost momentum after a rally as profit-taking and a stronger US dollar weighed on precious metals broadly. China's platinum imports—very strong from March to mid-June—have moderated, suggesting softer short-term demand. Despite near-term weakness, analysts remain optimistic about medium-term demand, especially with rising use in data centre construction and hydrogen energy, supporting long-term fundamentals for the metal. The super rally of 50% in price happened in just two months.
Platinum
Eskom aims to shift to mainly clean energy sources by 2040 from its current predominantly coal-based generation fleet.
The Judicial Service Commission has recommended Gauteng Judge President Dunstan Mlambo for the role of deputy chief justice.
China added 6.95 million urban jobs in the first half of the year, hitting 58% of its annual target, with the employment landscape “generally stable” – signalling resilience despite headwinds in the world’s second-largest economy.
The government is proposing to cut costs and red tape associated with business licensing to unlock the potential of small businesses via the country’s first national policy-level guidance on general business licensing in South Africa.
The Democratic Alliance’s decision to withdraw from the National Dialogue could see its leader, John Steenhuisen, being sanctioned. President Cyril Ramaphosa’s office said that while the party can boycott the event, ministers who do not participate in the dialogue would be acting insubordinately.
The International Trade Administration Commission of SA has imposed a provisional 52.34% tariff on imports of corrosion-resistant steel coil in a move that is a major boost to steel manufacturer ArcelorMittal SA, as well as jobs.
Famous Brands has raised concern over the growing impact of online gambling on consumer spending, saying it is eroding disposable income and weighing on restaurant traffic.
The African Development Bank will give South Africa a $474.6 million (R8.34 billion) loan to upgrade its transport and energy infrastructure, the second big infrastructure loan the country has been promised in weeks.
South Africa’s manufacturing sector showed a rebound in June with the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index rising by 5.4 points to 48.5, the second highest reading this year.
Domestic new-vehicle sales continued their momentum in June.
Eskom said if unplanned outages increased to 15 000MW, the country could face up to 21 days of stage 2 load-shedding during winter. So far, however, it was a very moderate winter.
Eskom says it has learnt from the mistakes made in the decommissioning of the Komati power station and is already preparing in advance the projects that will cater for workers, communities, and contractors when the Hendrina, Camden, Arnot, Kriel and Grootvlei power stations are decommissioned in 2030.
The population of South Africa’s national bird, the Blue Crane, is in serious decline. Until just 15 years ago, its numbers were increasing well. However, research has now shown that the species’ overall population trajectory changed in 2010 from positive to negative, and that the downward trend has continued since then.
The 2025 Miss South Africa pageant has been postponed. It was set to take place in August. The postponement is to allow the organisers “to align the event with international and global events”.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has defended Operation Vulindlela, countering criticism by some “opposition parties” that have labelled the initiative a “form of privatisation”.
The Competition Tribunal has approved Canal+'s R35 billion take-over offer for TV broadcaster MultiChoice, subject to agreed conditions.
The JSE is monitoring global developments that have seen the world’s largest stock exchange pursue 24-hour trading hours, with Africa’s largest bourse likely to follow suit. Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange have either announced or are said to consider extending their trading hours to 24 hours. A quarter of the JSE’s listing are made up of companies with dual listings, mainly in the UK, EU, and USA, and 24-hours trading could facilitate international transactions.
South Africa's headline consumer inflation rose to 3.0% in June from 2.8% in May. Economists had predicted inflation would increase to 3.1.%. This opens the window for an interest rate cut in July and maybe two more towards the end of the year.
Six solar photovoltaic projects, with a combined capacity of 1 290 MW, have been named as preferred bidders, following the seventh bid window of the Renewable Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme. All the projects are in the Free State province and achieved competitive bid prices of between R499.99/MWh and R514.06/MWh.
Public Works Minister Dean Macpherson confirmed the scale and brazenness of procurement fraud in a multimillion-rand project to install oxygen generation plants at 55 state hospitals across South Africa. The jig is up for IDT CEO, Tebogo Malaka, who faces possible suspension while a whopping 400 IDT employees are up for lifestyle audits.
